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" 002288 b) A comparative analysis of low flows during historic and projected future flow events to identify the flow volume shortage expected under future water development (March 4, 1999, memo from Yampa Management Team), 4, In developing the water management plan, the variation in the base flow hydrograph should be maintained such that both optimal and drought conditions are represented at historical frequencies, The Biology Committee, in providing direction to researchers in the Yampa River, has concurred with the findings of the habitat availability report from Modde et al. (1999) and as part of the recovery plan, has supported the Division of Wildlife in its preparation of the Aquatic Wildlife Management Plan for the Yampa River to address issues that include conflicts between nonnative sport fish and native endangered fish in the basin, 4. WATER DEMAND STUDIES The 1993 Hydrosphere study projected water demands both near-term (2015) and long-term (2040) for the Yampa River Basin. The study estimated water demands as of 1989 based on expected population growth and projections for industrial use (primarily cooling water requirements for power generation), The total long-term demand for water was estimated at 479,000 af with consumptive use of 160,000 af. In June 1998, BBC Research and Consulting completed a subsequent study of future water demands entitled Yampa Valley Water Demand Study Final Report (BBC Research & Consulting, 1998), The purpose of the study was to update and expand upon the 1993 Hydrosphere study and examine and quantify long-term water demand for human use in the Yampa River Basin, The BBC study was to provide a more in-depth examination of economic and demographic factors that affect water demand. The study first determined the current economic and demographic make up of the valley; approximately 30,000 people live in the Yampa River Valley. The service industry (including ski resorts and related services) employs the most people (7,330), The wholesale and retail trade employs 6,170 people, and the agricultural industry employs 1,270 people, The stability of each employment sector was analyzed to help predict growth rates. Recreation visitor days are expected to more than double, indicating that service and retail industries are likely to continue to grow in the future, The remaining sectors are stable; there appears to be no reason for significant change in these markets, BBC used the current demographics and economics to predict a growth rate, The Yampa River Valley population will grow to an estimated 62,500-77,000 by 2045. The service industry will still employ the largest number of people, closely followed by retail and wholesale trade, The agricultural sector is predicted to employ the fewest people (less than 3 percent of the population), The current water usage by each sector was analyzed to help predict future water usage, Water usage is measured by diversion (how much water is taken from the river) and by consumption (how much is used), Approximately 465,000 af per year is diverted and 200,000 af is consumed, The agricultural industry diverts around 425,000 af and consumes approximately 90,000 af with the remainder of diverted flows returned to the river. About Dr;lft 07/28/99 10 Ayres Associates