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---------------------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- --------------------------------------------------- --------------------------- SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS, AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS Streamflow Forecasts Aprll 1, 2000 ~~~~-~=====~-=~=~==~~-== =~~~=:~:~:~~==~~~=====~=~=======~~:~:=~==~=~~~=========~===~=======~~~~~=~==~~~=~=~:===~=======~=~==~:==~~~=~~~=~:~~==-=-======-~ I I Forecast I ~~:~====~~~::~~~:~== Chance Of Exceeding Period I 90\ 70% I 50\ (Most Probable) I {lOOOAP} (lOOOA!') I (lOOOAF) 1\ AVG.) ~~~~~OOOOOOOOO"""""~""OOOOOOO"O"~"~~~o~===""""~o==o=======o~=oo~o=o=I============="""""""""" Dolores R at Dolores APR-JUL 175 220 I 250 102 McPhee Reservoir inflow APR-JUL 204 255 I 290 103 San Miguel River nr placerville APR-JUL 81 110 I 130 107 Gurley Reservoir Intake APR-JUL 12.8 15.3 117.1 94 APRIL I 1.88 94 MAY I 8.89 101 JUNE I 5.07 88 JULY I 1.26 77 APR-JUL 1.94 2.51 ] 3.00 93 APRIL I 0.35 92 HAY I 1.60 93 JUNE I 0.83 91 JULY I 0.22 100 APR-JUL 1.32 2.12 I 2.67 96 APRIL I 0.34 94 MAY l 1.15 103 JUNE I 0.98 92 JULY I 0.20 83 APR-JUL 13.5 23 I 30 56 APR-JUL 11.0 24 I 33 51 APR-JUL 127 185 I 230 60 APR-JUL 64 100 I 125 57 APR-JUL 75 111 I 135 69 APR-JUL 155 319 I 430 56 APR-,JUL 249 315 I 360 86 APR-JUL 20 32 I 40 70 APR-JUL 15.3 19.3 I 22 92 APR-JUL 22 33 I 40 100 APRIL I 6.00 103 MAY I 17.0 107 JUNE I 13.0 95 JULY I 4.00 87 Forecast POlnt Cone Reservoir Intake Li1ylands Reservoir Intake Rio Blanco at Blanco Diversion Navajo River at Oso Diversion San Juan River nr Carracus piedra River nr Arboles Va11ecito Reservoir Inflow Navajo ReservOlr Inflow Animas River at Durango Lemon Reservoir Inflow La Plata River at Hesperus Mancos River nr Mancos <<====== Drier ===~~~ Future Conditions Wetter ~~~~~;>;> 30. (1000AF) 280 32S 150 18.9 3.58 3.22 37 42 280 150 159 541 405 48 2S 47 10% (1000AF) 32S 376 179 21 4.65 4.02 47 55 363 186 195 705 471 60 29 58 30-Yr Avg. (1000AF) 246 283 122 18.2 2.00 8.80 5.76 1.64 3.23 0.38 1.72 0.91 0.22 2.79 0.36 1.12 1.07 0.24 54 65 382 219 196 772 418 S7 24 40 5.80 15.9 13.7 4.60 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------------- - - ------------------------------ ------------------------- - SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS. AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS I SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS, AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS Reservoir Storage (1000 AF) - End of March I Watershed Snowpack Ana1ysls - April 1, 2000 =-=~~~~~~~~~~~~:~~~~~~:~:~:~~~~==~:~~=~~~:~~~~--==-==-==-=-===-=====-===-===~=======:=~===~~~===-==-====~~=======~==:==~~=-=-=--= Usable I ... Usable Storage I Number This Year as , of Reset:voir Capaclty'l This Last 'I Watershed cf ============~==~-= I Year Year Avg I Data Sites Last Yr Average ~====================================~============== ===================I=====:====:====~==========~===:====:=:=================== GROUNDHOG 21.7 16.3 16.4 11.7 I ANIMAS RIVER BASIN 10 149 82 I JACKSON GULCH 10.0 7.0 6.1 5. I DOt..ORES RIVER BASIN 6 342 97 I LEMON 40.0 30.6 17.8 20. I SAN MIGUEL RIVER BASIN 287 100 I MCPHEE 381.2 326.3 278. 309. I SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN 92 57 I NARRAGUINNEP 19.0 18.6 17.5 15.0 I TOTAL SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES 23 178 83 I VALLECITO 126.0 75.0 80.8 57.6 I SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS I ===-======:==:==-==-==-=~:=====:============~====~==~=========~=============:====:~=================:-========================:===~==~= . 90', 70%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the ~ctual volume wlll exceed the volumes in the table The average is computed for the 1961-1990 base period. (1) The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels. (2) The value is natural volume actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.