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<br />l\) <br />...... <br />0") <br /> <br />1 . IN'VRODUCTlON <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />This s~ction reviews the past effort and progress made towards <br />develo~ing stochastic hydrology techniques for the U.S. Bureau of <br />Reclamation. The current status of the effort is discussed. <br /> <br />1.1 Backmround <br /> <br />The oVe~all objective of the development of stochastic hydrologic <br />techniqUes is to develop and put into a working "toolbox" several <br />practi~al methods for analyzing and simulating hydrologic phenomenon. <br />lnitialily, several "blocks" were defined which incorporated various <br />aspects; of the entire effort. Personnel were chosen and a team was <br />created; to implement the development of computerized analytical <br />tools. ,A major effort was placed in training the team members as <br />well as! developing computer programs to perform the analyses on a <br />mass sc~le. The first part of this project'resulted in several <br />compute~ programs being written and applied to analyze hydrologic <br />data. ~he aspect of data analysis is presently felt to be more <br />critica~ than originally conceived. As a result of problems <br />experie~ced with the present data set, recommendations for future <br />improve~nts along this line are included in chapter V. <br /> <br />The secpnd major aspect of the project effort is to develop and <br />test a ~del which can simulate the operation of an entire river <br />basin, !including streamflow, water quality, reservoir operations, <br />and wat~r use, Through 1973 the team's effort was directed towards <br />develop~ng a computer model to accomplish this. By fall 1973 the <br />model h,d been completed, but a thorough test of all its capability <br />had not'been made. <br /> <br />At the ~ime of this writing, modifications and improvements to the <br />modelinll o,f the river basin are continuing. The model as yet is <br />still in a position of development and is not considered to be in <br />final fbrm, The model is felt to presently be operating substantially <br />correctiand future modifications are expected to be minor refinements. <br /> <br />In deve~oping the strategy for accomplishing the objective of <br />develop~ng synthetic hydrology techniques and simulation capability, <br />it was realized that a major application of the new methods would <br />be a va~ua"le test of the effort as well as a vehicle for illustrating <br />the pot,ntial power of the methods. Thus, it was decided to apply , <br />the newltechniques to the Colorado River Basin and at the same time <br />provide! some useful information to the Western U.S. Water Plan Study <br />!' . <br />and ColOrado RIver Water Quality Improvement Program. <br /> <br />