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<br /><::> <br />N 3.0 PREDICTION OF RESPONSES <br />~ <br />.- <br /> <br />Page 7 <br /> <br />3.1 ANALYTICAL MODEL <br /> <br />After the 1982 aquifer test, an analytical model of the Glenwood Springs system was developed, <br />using a computer-based well-field simulator. A combination of flow and no-flow boundaries <br />corresponding to known features were used to simulate observed head conditions. Although <br />the solution was in no way unique, the simulation successfully simulated both static and dynamic <br />heads. Several head measurements made during the drawdown portion of the test were used as <br />calibration points for the model. <br /> <br />3.2 MODEL PREDICTIONS <br /> <br />The analytical model was used to assist in answering two basic questions. One, will discharge <br />from a specific point (the Redstone well) reduce by a similar amount the thermal water entering <br />the river in adjacent areas? Two, what will be the impact to other geothermal water users in <br />the Glen wood Springs area as a result of discharge from the Redstone well? <br /> <br />Once the model was calibrated, it was used to predict head changes at various locations around <br />the Glen wood Springs area, in response to discharge from the Redstone well. At specific spring <br />sites, the predicted head changes were used to calculate reduction in flow. Using only the flow <br />reduction from the most major springs along the river, approximately 80% of the well flow can <br />be accounted for. Since this analysis did not include at least 50% of the thermal flow to the <br />river, this analysis was judged to demonstrate essentially a 100 % reduction of natural flow to <br />the river, due to discharge from the well (Galloway, 1983). Reduction in spring flow due to <br />discharge from the Redstone well was substantiated by direct measurements of springs during <br />the second aquifer test. The State of Colorado, Department of Health accepted the analysis and <br /> <br />Michael J. Ganoway <br />Consulting Hydrogeolog/sl <br /> <br />Project 1016 <br /> <br />";- <br />