WSP10974

• File Number: 8220.143.J
• Description: Smith Fork ‎(Crawford)‎ Project
• State: CO
• Basin: Gunnison
• Water Division: 4
• Date: 5/1/1958
• Author: Dept of Agriculture
• Title: Report of Reappraisal of Direct Agricultural Benefits and Project Impacts-Smith Fork Project
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

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Projected Agricultural Economy

Primary objectives of the economic analysis of agricultural potentials of
Smith Fork project are: (I) To develop estimates of potential incomes with
the proposed irrigation development, and (2) to estimate direct agricultural
benefits that can be expected to accrue with development of additional water
for irrigation purposes. These long-time projections are based upon important
economic and physical assumptions. The more important assumptions include:
(1) Projected types and sizes of farms, crops and livestock produced, and
production on nonirrigated lands to be brought under irrigation will be
smilar to those on presently irrigated land having comparable physical,
climatic and economic environments; (2) present trends in farming practices
and crop yields will continue to improve under the impetus of technological
advancement; (3) increased production will be absorbed by expanding
population without marked disturbance in marketing processes or in local
market prices; and (4) the long-term relationship of prices paid to prices
received are tied to an all-product index of 235 (1910-l4-100) for prices
received by farmers and an index of 265 for prices and rates paid by farmers,
including items used in production, interest, taxes, and wages.

Budgeting of full-time farms is used in developing estimates of both potential
incomes and direct agricultural benefits 'with' and 'without' the project.
'With' project budgets are based on conditions expected after the project
has been in operation long enough to have achieved normal input and output
relationships.

Sources of Data

Numerous economic studies of irrigation development have been relied upon
for the economic and physical standards and the procedures used in the
analysis. This background information was supplemented by specific
information for the Smith Fork project obtained from three major sources:
(1) Material furnished by the U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, (2) a survey
of farmers located in the project area conducted during 1957 by the U. S.
Bureau of Reclamation and the U. S. Department of Agriculture, and (3)
information furnished by local representatives of federal and state agencies,
local businessmen, and Colorado State University personnel.

Commodity Price Projections

Prices used for evaluating potential incomes, direct benefits, and associated
costs are based upon price and cost projections developed by the U. S.
Department of Agriculture. These projections were published in September 1957
for official use by Department of Agriculture agencies in benefit-cost analysis.
The projected prices are based upon Rrelatively high employment, a trend
toward peace, continued population and economic growth, and a stable general
price level. R

The long-term projected index of prices received for all farm commodities
is 235, base period 1910-14. A comparable index for prices paid, including
interest, wages and taxes, is 26,.

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