Laserfiche WebLink
<br />(jJ;)ti33 <br />H ENZ KELLY & ASSOCIATES <br />Weather Forecasting and Consulting <br /> <br />* July 19, 1985. ..Surrey Ridge Tornado/Aurora-I25 Flood <br /> <br />-Forecast 3-5" rains, thunderstorm paths, potential flooding of <br />1-25, and high tornado likelihood with need for pumpers ~nd snow <br />plows due to drain-clogging by hail <br />-Received 3-4.5" rains in south Denver and Aurora, 1-25 flooded <br />during rush hour, 4-12" pea/golf-ball size hail in extreme east <br />Denver and western Aurora <br />-Forecasts made 4-5 hours in advance <br /> <br />* August 1, 1985...Cheyenne Flash Flood... <br /> <br />-Predicted high likelihood of very severe flash flooding event <br />accompanied by severe weather in UDFCD between l400-1900L before <br />noon...4-6" rains, tornado, hail <br />-Received 2.31"/30 minutes in central Jeffco, 1-2.5" rains in <br />UDFCD, brief tornado in Douglas County <br />-Correctly identified threat over in UDFCD by 1600l as potential <br />swung to north...ie Larimer County and Cheyenne . <br /> <br />C. F2-P2: Key Components <br /> <br />* Regional heavy rain/flash flooding assessment <br /> <br />* Local assessment of flash flooding potential <br />-Type of thunderstorms <br />-Rainfall characteristics (amount, intensity, duration, storm <br />total rainfall) <br />-Thunderstorm tracks <br />-Associated severe weather <br />-Timing of storms <br />-Basin specific forecasts <br /> <br />* Complete storm metwatch as it crosses the area of concern with <br />appropriate communications <br /> <br />* Observations <br />-NWS surface/upper air observations <br />-Satellite <br />-Radar <br />-Mesonet - automated surface weather stations <br />-New technology <br />-Observer network <br />-Rain/stream gage networks <br /> <br />* Internal guidance package - HKA Excessive Convective Rainfall Model <br /> <br />D. F2-P2 Pre-Program Documentation Evaluations <br /> <br />* Phoenix, Arizona: Completed and proposed <br /> <br />* Las Vegas/Clark County, Nevada: In-progress <br /> <br />1776 South Jackson Street. Denver, Colorado 80210 . (303) 759-1947 <br />