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<br />growth over the very long term. A separate concern was voiced about <br /> <br /> <br />the starting point of the long-term forecasts. Of specific concern is <br /> <br />the year 2010 population estimate and the implied migration assumption <br /> <br />for that year. <br /> <br />Response <br />The COE has considered these comments carefully and has concluded <br />that, although the Series 1 assumptions achieved convergence more <br />thoroughly than Series 2, the implications for Denver's employment <br />growth in the later time periods were probably too severe. In other <br />words, Denver will likely maintain a certain competitive advantage over <br />the Nation as a whole because of its climate and esthetic and geo- <br />graphical characteristics. <br /> <br />The COE has determined that the disadvantages of the Series 1 <br />growth projections can be minimized and the advantages largely pre- <br />served by splitting the difference between Series 1 and Series 2. <br />Because Series 1 assumes zero net migration in the year 2035 and Series <br />2 implies a 10,000 person net migration level, the assumption adopted <br />by the COE is a 5,000 person migration level for the year 2035. <br /> <br />The long-term population forecasts require an extrapolation of <br /> <br /> <br />migration fram the year 2010 to year 2035. The starting point, which <br /> <br />was year 2010, can nO longer be determined in an absolute sense from <br /> <br />the 1982 or 1984 DRCOG policy forecasts because a number of modifica- <br /> <br /> <br />tions have been performed on the year 2010 population projections. It <br /> <br />is currently believed that the best means of selecting a migration <br /> <br />level for the long term forecasts is to adopt the annual average of <br /> <br />year 2000 to year 2010 migration as reported for the 1984 DRCOG fore- <br /> <br />casts. Any error stemming from this assumption is believed to have <br /> <br />minimal effects on the long term population forecasts. <br /> <br />15 <br />