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<br />Representative or typical weather depicts average rainfall and <br /> <br /> <br />lawn-watering requirements. Extreme fluctuations in rainfall can be <br /> <br />counteracted with short-term conservation measures. The influence of <br /> <br />weather on the overall composite demand could cause variations of ~ 7.5 <br /> <br />percent from the demand projections in 19 out of 20 years. The demand <br /> <br /> <br />in the dry year that is expected to occur in lout of 20 yesrs, would <br /> <br />be about 7 to 10 percent greater than average. There should be suffi- <br /> <br />cient storage in the system to buffer short-term fluctuations in demand <br /> <br />and long-term fluctuations in yield. Extreme events can be managed <br /> <br />with emergency conservation measures_ <br /> <br />While it is predictable that there will be dry years in the Denver <br />metropolitan area, there is no reliable method by which to precisely <br />predict the timing or severity of droughts. Therefore, the COE has <br />developed the demand forecasts with a model that is free of conserva- <br />tive assumptions. Using the Task 2 demand forecasts, utility planners <br />can conduct followup analyses to determine how much the community is <br />willing to pay to avoid water shortages of various magnitudes. On the <br />basis of these data, safety factors may he proposed. While the COE <br />recognizes its responsibility to provide reasonable estimates of future <br />demand, safety factors are water utility planning decisions and are not <br />in the domain of the Task 2 technical appendix. <br /> <br />The use factor model is specified to describe the realities of <br />behavior in the 1974 through 1982 period, including conservation, <br />public awareness, and environmental consciousness. The effect of local <br />and/or short-term variations in demand are diminished by the data from <br />other years. Considering the period as a whole, conservation programs <br />in the latter part of the base period are not believed to have had a <br />significant influence on use. Notwithstanding, trends in water use are <br />represented in the model by the use of lot size, price, income, and <br />household size variables. As trends develop in these variables, <br />corresponding trends will be seen in water demand. <br />9 <br />