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o CJI related to agriculture and electricity generation. As a result, the model 00 o projects a negligible output response of these sectors to synfuel development (See Fig. S-4). The UCRB Optimization model will, however, allow these sectors to divert output which would ordinarily be sold for export to sale for use within the region; this is "export substitution.." The local and export sales- of the agriculture for 2000 under the "without," "baseline" and "accelerated" synfuel scenarios are shown on Fig. S-5. While these data do not reflect the prospects for changes agricultural production patterns due to the growth in local markets, they do give a general idea of the potential for export substi- tution: about six percent of the output would be redirected to local use under the accelerated scenario with a lower impact oil shale technology. The output of the electric generating activity of the Basin was restricted because it was felt that the electricity needs of the synfuels developments could be met by diverting electricity exports to local use. The direct demand for electricity will vary both with the technology employed and industry deci- sions as to whether to use the fuel produced to generate electricity on site. In order to gage the potential impact of synfuels electricity consumption on projected 2000 export capacity, a "worst case" condition (a heavy electricity using oil shale technology with no on site generation) was run. The results are displayed on Fig. s-6. They show that the Upper Main Stem region would have a significant shortfall in local electrical capacity. More important, the results show that virtually all the electric capacity currently planned as export capacity in 2000 in the Green and Upper Ma~ Stem regions would have to be diverted for use by the synfuels developments under the "worst case" assumptions.