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<br />o <br />CJ1 <br />~ <br />00 <br /> <br />As the figures for the Green region indicate, the economic impact of syn- <br /> <br />fuels development is relatively greater as analysis focuses on areas of con- <br /> <br />centrated synfuels development. In fact, oil shale development is likely to <br /> <br />be focused in the southern portion of the Green region, in the neighborhood of <br /> <br />the Utah-Colorado border (see Fig. S-l). <br /> <br />The magnitude of these economic impacts is even more impressive when one <br /> <br />recalls that these projections were made under the assumption of economic <br /> <br />equilibrium or operating conditions. The amplification of ::ctivity usually <br /> <br />associated with a "construction" phase is not embodied in the model and this <br /> <br />generally makes the projections more conservative. <br /> <br />Economic Structure <br /> <br />Synfuel development will also impact the economic structure of the UCRB.. <br /> <br />The total output in 2000 for each of nine economic sectors for the "without", <br /> <br />"baseline" and "accelerated" scenarios are displayed in Fig. S-4.1 These <br /> <br />resul ts are for a case when a lower impact oil shale technology is selected, <br /> <br />but they are for the most part typical of other model runs. Under either syn- <br /> <br />fuel scenario, synfuel activities are projected to dominant the UCRB economy; <br /> <br />only coal mining would rival these new activities. The industrial sector of <br /> <br />the Basin would grow in absolute terms but shrink in relative size. The major <br /> <br />secondary impacts would occur in the support services and household sectors of <br /> <br />the economy. <br /> <br />Export Substitution <br /> <br />A number of activities in the UCRB economy ~ere judged to have their out- <br />.. <br /> <br />put fixed in 2000, regardless of the scenario. These activities were primarily <br /> <br />lThe UCRB Optimization Model is composed of 43 economic sectors in each of <br />the three regions of the Basin. These sectors have been aggregated for the <br />purpose of this overview. Output values will vary depending upon the defini- <br />tion of sectors and accounting practices employed. For this reason, the <br />emphasis should be in the relative changes rather than the absolute numerical <br />values of Fig. S-4. <br />