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<br />" <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />"\ . <br /> <br />001433 <br /> <br />A Two-Year Research Program. ".:' <br />on Past.and Probable Future Variations in <br />Stream Flow in the Uppsr Colorado River <br /> <br />SUMMARY <br /> <br />The year-to-year fluctuations of available water in Colorado's major river <br /> <br /> <br />basins affect many aspects of the State's economy. Advance estimates of the <br /> <br /> <br />expected amounts of fluctuation, if they were reliable, would permit better <br /> <br /> <br />utilization of the State's precious water resources, which are so essential for <br /> <br /> <br />agriculture, hydroelectric power, and for domestic and industrial consumption. <br /> <br />The proposed research program attacks the problem of providing, within the <br /> <br />limitations of present scientific knowledge, the optimum form of information re- <br /> <br /> <br />garding the seasonal and year-to-year availability of water in a specific water- <br /> <br /> <br />shed, the upper Colorado River basin. <br /> <br />The program involves three aspects, as follows: <br /> <br />I. A scientific formulation of the limits of variability in stream <br /> <br /> <br />flow, based on analyses of all available historical flow records. <br /> <br /> <br />This study will result in an accurate expression of the probability <br /> <br /> <br />of occurrence of various levels'of abundance or drought, the probable <br /> <br />durations of such extremes, and other practically important prob- <br /> <br /> <br />ability statements based on the assumption that past history is a <br /> <br /> <br />judge of future prospect. <br /> <br />\ <br /> <br />II. A broader study embraoing correlations between stream flow and <br /> <br /> <br />other weather elements, such as rainfall at official U.S. Weather <br /> <br /> <br />Bureau stations, temperatures, wind data, and other weather factors <br /> <br /> <br />for the basin. This aspect of the research seeks to relate stream <br /> <br /> <br />flow to more conventional and more widely studied weather elements, <br /> <br /> <br />and to determine the extent to which these better known elements <br /> <br />/can be relied upon to predict stream flow. If future meteorolog- <br /> <br /> <br />ical research work discovers improved long-range weather forecast- <br /> <br />ing techniques, this part of the program will faoilitate their <br /> <br /> <br />adaptation to prediotion of practically useful figures for Colorado <br /> <br /> <br />River flow. <br /> <br />III. A basic rese"rch effort in which the so-called "general circulation" <br /> <br /> <br />of the high atmosphere (above 15,000 feet altitude) is compared with <br /> <br /> <br />conventional weather measurements with a view to ascertaining how <br />