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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />f <br /> <br />lo-" <br />-.J <br />QO <br />-.J <br /> <br />Documentation an Incremental Analysis <br />of the LCRBD Fund <br />Repayment Spreadsheet <br /> <br />Analysis B <br /> <br />To determine the impact of changes in Hoover Deficiency payments <br />and other ch~nges to the Lower Colorado River Basin repayment <br />spreadsheet in the 1990 Joint Evaluation Report (JER), an <br />incremental analysis of these changes was required. This <br />analysis was based on incorporating changes to the repayment <br />spreadsheet and identifying the results from this change. For <br />example, proj'ect casts were revised and spread out further in the <br />1990 - 2010 time period to reflect a level funding approach to <br />implementing the salinity program. This change was incorporated <br />into the 1990 JER repayment spreadsheet. The total program cast, <br />total interest charges an annual deficits, and the balance in the <br />Lower Coloradp River Basin Development Fund (LCRBDF) in 2010 were <br />recalculated and displayed in table 1. Differences in estimated <br />casts between: the 1990 JER repayment spreadsheet and the changes <br />to that spreadsheet in this analysis are identified in table 1. <br /> <br />Far this analysis, a different annual inflation rate was used. <br />In the 1990 JER, an additional repayment spreadsheet was <br />developed to estimate an annual inflation rate such that the <br />balance in the LCRBDF was zero in the year 2010. For that <br />spreadsheet, a 2.9% annual inflation rate was calculated to zero <br />aut the LCRBDF balance in 2010. It was decided to use a more <br />realistic annual inflation rate to determine the impact an the <br />project costs and the LCRBDF. To determine an appropriate annual <br />inflation rate that would be projected aut for twenty years, it <br />was decide to use the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) <br />escalation factors which are used by the Bureau of Reclamation in <br />estimating future fiscal year budgets (see Memorandum, W-6330, <br />january 31,1991). Based an a six year series (1991 to 1996) of <br />OMB escalatiori factors, a simple average annual rate of 3.6% was <br />estimated and used in this analysis as the annual inflation <br />factor. For comparison purposes casts are displayed based <br />using an the 2.9% AND 3.6 % inflation factors. <br /> <br />Below is a brief description of the changes which were made <br />incrementally .to the 1990 JER repayment spreadsheet. These <br />changes are listed as scenarios to the original spreadsheet. <br /> <br />BASE <br /> <br />1990 JER Spreadsheets, Casts are estimated with <br />out inflation and with inflation using both annual <br />rates of 2.95% and 3.6%. <br /> <br />Scenario 1 <br /> <br />Project casts far Grand Valley Stage II, Lower <br />Gunnison Winter Water, Paradox Valley, Dolores- <br />Salinity Control, Price-San Rafael(USDA) were. <br />reduced and Uinta Stage I, Price-San RafaellUSBR), <br />