WSP10833

• File Number: 8274.500
• Description: Colorado River Basin Salinity Control - General Basinwide Salinity Issues
• Basin: Colorado Mainstem
• Water Division: 5
• Date: 8/22/1991
• Title: Documentation on Incremental Analysis of the LCRBD Fund - Repayment Spreadsheet
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

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Documentation an Incremental Analysis
of the LCRBD Fund
Repayment Spreadsheet

Analysis A

To determine the impact of changes in' Hoover Deficiency payments
and ather changes to the Lower Colorado River Basin repayment
spreadsheet in the 1990 Joint Evaluation Report (JER), an
incremental analysis of these changes was required. This
analysis was based an incorporating changes to the repayment
spreadsheet and identifying the results from this change. For
example, project casts were revised and annual funding levels for
the 1990 - 2010 period are scheduled such that the Salinity
Program meets.the 879 mg/l criteria in 2010. This change was
incorporated into the 1990 JER repayment spreadsheet. The total
program cost, total interest charges on annual deficits, and the
balance in the Lower Colorado River Basin Development Fund'
(LCRBDF) in 2010 were recalculated and displayed in table 1.
Differences iri estimated costs between the 1990 JER repayment
spreadsheet and the changes to that spreadsheet in this analysis
are identified in table 1. .

For this analysis, a different annual inflation rate was used.
In the 1990 JER, an additional repayment spreadsheet was
developed to estimate an annual inflation rate such that the
balance in the LCRBDF was zero in the year 2010. For that
spreadsheet, a 2.9% annual inflation rate was calculated to zero
out'the LCRBDF balance in 2010. It was decided to use a mare
realistic annual inflation rate to determine the impact on the
project casts and the LCRBDF. To determine an appropriate annual
inflation rate that would be projected out for twenty years, it
was decide to use the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
escalation factors which are used by the Bureau of Reclamation in
estimating future fiscal year budgets (see Memorandum, W-6330,
january 31,1991). Based an a six year series (1991 to 1996) of
OKB escalation factors, a simple average annual rate of 3.6% was
estimated and 'used in this analysis as the annual inflation
factor. For comparison purposes casts are displayed based
~sing an the 2.9% AND 3.6 % inflation factors.

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Below is a brief description of the changes which were made
incrementally to the 1990 JER repayment spreadsheet. These
changes are listed as scenarios to the original spreadsheet:

BASE

1990 JER Spreadsheets, Costs are estimated with
out inflation and with inflation using bath annual
rates of 2.95% and 3.6%.

Scenario 1

Project casts for Grand Valley Stage II, Lower
Gunnison Winter Water, Paradox Valley, Dolores-
Salinity Control, Price-San Rafael(USDA) were
reduced and Uinta Stage I, Price-San Rafael(USBR),

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