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<br />c:::> <br /><::> viii <br />~ <br />(.) <br />... Characteristics of system behavior are examined from simulations <br />c,n <br />using different streamflow sequences, upstream depletion levels, and <br /> <br />reservoir operating policies. Reservoir evaporation, discharge, dis- <br /> <br />charge salinity, and power generating capacity are examined. <br /> <br />Simulation outputs show that the probability with which Lake Powell <br /> <br />fails to supply a specified target discharge is highly variable. Simu- <br /> <br />lations employing different streamflow sequences result in probabilities <br /> <br />of reservoir failure which differ by as much as 0.1. <br /> <br />Three levels of Upper Colorado River Basin demands are imposed on <br /> <br />the model: 3.8 MAF/yr (4.7 km3/yr), 4.6 MAF/yr (5.7 km3/yr), and 5.5 <br />3 <br />MAF/yr (6.8 km /yr). Two levels of water demand are imposed below <br /> <br />Lake Mead: 8.25 MAF/yr (10.2 km3/yr) and 7.0 MAF/yr (6.8 km3/yr). <br /> <br />Although the effects of reservoir operations upon water quality <br /> <br />are made uncertain by a lack of knowledge regarding the chemical <br /> <br />limnology of Lake Powell, two possible lake chemistry models have been <br /> <br />developed, and the predicted impacts of changes in reservoir operation <br /> <br />upon water quality are presented. <br /> <br />The current criteria for the operations of Lakes Powell and Mead <br /> <br />are based upon 75 years of compromises and agreements between the var- <br /> <br />ious water interests in the Colorado River Basin. Simulations show that <br /> <br />Lake Powell will be unable to conform to these operating constraints <br /> <br />at the. higher levels of water demand. <br /> <br />An alternative form of reservoir operation is defined and compared <br /> <br />to the existing policy on. the basis of reliability of water supply, con- <br /> <br />servation of water, impact upon water quality, and the effect upon power <br /> <br />generation. <br />