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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />OD22~~ <br /> <br />Despite a basic optimism about long-term prospects on and off <br />the farm, the mood is one of deep concern in the late autumn of 1981, <br />as conditions have combined to produce the worst short-term prospects <br />in the memory of farmers and businessmen. Commodity prices have <br />plunged from levels a year ago -- cotton, grain sorghums and soy- <br />beans down 20 to 30 percent, corn down 23 percent, and wheat down 11 <br />percent. Farm production costs in the growing season just ending <br />have risen 12 to 15 percent over a year ago, with energy costs con- <br />tinuing to climb and interest costs on loans ranging to 16 percent, <br />Adding to near-disaster conditions, particularly for the 65 to 70 <br />percent of farm operators who are tenants, is another very poor <br />crop-yield year and this one ironically due to too much rain at <br />the wrong time. <br /> <br />In these very unsettling times, many liquidations and forced <br />machinery sales are expected, but with few buyers at hand. There <br />are no buyers in the market for more lilnd. The banks \'/ant very <br />much to carry the producer and the businessman another year in this <br />"next-year" country, but bankruptcies are expected. flore and more <br /> <br />tenant farmers are getting out, attracted to the booming oil and <br />gas industry. Not just dryl and farming, but idl eland as well, are <br />expected in the 1982 growing season, as the absentee landowner <br />is not expected to return to put in a crop. Moreover, next year <br />may see a doubling in the price of energy to run the irrigation <br /> <br />11-5 <br /> <br />Arthur D Lillie Inc <br />