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<br />TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
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<br />Page
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<br />APPENDIX A: FORECASTING MODELS AND METHODOLOGY USED
<br />IN THE HIGH PLAINS STUDY
<br />
<br />A-I
<br />
<br />The Problem , . . , . . , . . , A-2
<br />Interacting Economic Models A-4
<br />Critical Sensitivities in Impact Analysis A-I7
<br />Water Use Efficiency A-I7
<br />Agricultural Productivity A-I8
<br />Energy Prices . . . . . . A-25
<br />Export Demand . , . , . . A-28
<br />Economic Growth . . . , . A-33
<br />Alternative Future Events A-38
<br />Drought , . . . . . , . . A-38
<br />Enhanced Demand , . , . . A-4I
<br />I/O Energy Price Sensitivities A-41
<br />
<br />Figures
<br />Figure 1: High Plains Study Interacting
<br />Models and Data Inputs .,.." . . A-5
<br />Figure 2: High Plains Study Energy Price
<br />P roj ect i on Methodology . . . . , , . . A-8
<br />Figure 3: National Primary Energy Resource
<br />Price and Production ,. . . . , , . . A-IO
<br />Figure 4: Historical and Projected Crop
<br />Yields, Nebraska Subregion Four -
<br />Nonirrigated Corn .,.,....,...,."... A-19
<br />Figure 5: Historical and Projected Crop
<br />Yields, Nebraska Subregion Four -
<br />Irrigated Corn .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-20
<br />Figure 6: Historical and Projected Crop
<br />Yields, Nebraska Subregion Four -
<br />Nonirrigated Grain Sorghum . , , . , . , , , . , . . , . A-21
<br />Figure 7: Historical and Projected Crop
<br />Yields, Nebraska Subregion Four -
<br />Irrigated Grain Sorghum. . . , . . , . . , . . , , , . . A-22
<br />Figure 8: Historical and Projected Crop
<br />Yields, Nebraska Subregion Four -
<br />Nonirrigated Wheat """.", A-23
<br />Figure 9: Historical and Projected Commodity
<br />Exports - U,S, Cotton Exports , . , , . . . A-29
<br />Figure 10: Historical and Projected Commodity
<br />Exports - U.S, Grain Sorghum Exports A-30
<br />Figure 11: Historical and Projected Commodity
<br />Exports - U,S, Wheat Exports ,. . , , , A-3I
<br />Figure 12: Historical and Projected Cotton
<br />Prices - 1977 Dollars, . . , , . . , , . A-35
<br />Figure 13: Historical and Projected Crop
<br />Prices (NIRAP Projections ~ 1977 Dollars) A-36
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<br />xvii
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