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OOOSE or alleviate its adverse impact. Standardized water facility operating procedures to be used during periods of shortage, additional efforts to conserve available wnter, and augmenta- tion of existing supplies would all help. The amount of water which will be available dllring an average year is of crucial importance to the basin. An overly optimistic estir.1ate will lead to a qradllal depletion of the stored water and eventually require cessation of deliveries to some users, while a pessimistic estimnte will result in less than optiJ:1um developnent of the basin. \"Ie recognize that exact predictions of the anount of water in the basin are inpossible to make, and for that reason we tend to believe the best estimate would be based on actual metered flows rather than on the less precise estimates of water available in years past. Because the metered flow data indicates an average annual flow of about 13.7 maf--an anount significantly less than the 14.8 maf figure the Bureau is using--we believe its estimate is very optimistic. While the Bureau recognizes that a water shortage could be much r.1ore severe than predicted, r.1ost of its plans and pro- grams are based on this optimistic prediction. In our opinion, because the estimate is extrenely crucial, all reasonably reliable estimates should be considered during the planning process to determine the effect the supply variation (including reserved water for Indian and Pederal lands) would have on study results. We believe this would provide a better basis for managing the basin's water resource and allow for possible contingency planning where deemed necessary. When dealing with a resource as important as water, such analyses should be mandatory. I: Ii Since everyone agrees that a water shortage is going to occur at some future tiJ:1e, we believe it is only reasonable to have an established plan of how the water facilities will be operated during a shortage. Water users need to know how the reservoir will operate during a shortage so that they will know the impact of the shortage on their water deliveries and establish their own contingency plans. At a ninimun, they need to know what the criteria are for declaring a shortage, how much water will be released during the shortage, at what levels the reservoirs will be maintained, and how much water each basin must provide for the Mexican water treaty commitment. We believe that in any area of impending water shortage, J:1aximum effort should he made to conserve and augment the existing water supplies. Yet some of the Bureau's programs for salvage and augmentation have been canceled or have had limited success due to environnental consideration, and J:1any of its conservation programs are failing because of legal 23