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<br />0008GQ <br /> <br />also show that prior to 1985'there is a high probability <br />that the reservoirs will be near or at full capacity and the <br />Bureau will be required to make releases in excess of what <br />is required downstream to provide for future flood storage. <br /> <br />Many State and Federal officials believe that signif- <br />icant shortages probably will not occur until sometime after <br />the year 2000. The exact timing and the availability of <br />water to meet additional Lower and Upper Basin demand will <br />depend on the rate of development in the Upper Basin and <br />actual runoff that occurs in the future. Some State officials <br />believe that the Upper Basin States will develop their water <br />resources at a much slower rate than the Bureau is projecting. <br /> <br />As noted previously, many experts project the future <br />supplies to be less than the 14.8 maf Bureau estimate. If <br />these estimates are correct, the shortages will occur much <br />sooner than the Bureau predicts and will be more severe. <br />Bureau officials stated that any initial downward adjustment <br />in the estimated water supply would not have any significant <br />impact on Upper Basin planning. This is because Upper Basin <br />planned development of 5.8 maf is based on about 14 maf <br />rather than the long-term average virgin flow of 14.8 maf. <br />The approximate 1 maf difference consists mainly of variable <br />high flows that do not recur on a consistent enough basis <br />to be considered a part of the firm supply for the projects <br />being planned and therefore would be passed to the Lower <br />Basin as surplus flows. <br /> <br />r' <br />I <br /> <br />However, Upper Basin development would be affected by <br />future average virgin flow of less than 14 maf. For example, <br />an annual flow of 13.5 maf based on tree ring data would leave <br />5.25 maf for consumptive use in the Upper Basin, assuming an <br />8.25 maf delivery to the Lower Basin. This is compared to the <br />Bureau's estimate of 5.8 maf for Upper Basin consumptive use. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />The use of storage facilities will delay the shortage <br />beyond the time when demand meets virgin supply, but at that <br />point new consumptive uses can only be undertaken by shift- <br />ing water away from then-current uses, by conservation, or <br />by augmenting the supply of water in the river. <br /> <br />GROUND WATER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED <br />PROBLEMS IN SOME AREAS <br /> <br />Surface water in the basin can meet most of the present <br />demands; however, some areas, mainly in Arizona, have relied <br /> <br />12 <br />