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<br />~!,\~10') <br />O:J.l _ i) '"" <br /> <br />For each water management strategy, state-level linear programming (LP) <br />models were used to project crop production, irrigated and dryland crop <br />acreages, value of agricultural production, returns to land and management <br />(pl us returns to imported water for Strategy Fi ve), and ground water use for <br />1985, 1990, 2000 and 2020. <br /> <br />To esti mate crop pri ces the General Contractor sel ected the NIRAP <br />(National Inter-Regional Agricultural Projection) model which was developed <br />by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. <br /> <br />The NIRAP model projects commodity prices based upon observed historical <br />relationships between supply and demand for various crops, including substitu- <br />tion between crops. The demand curve in a future year is projected based upon <br />growth in U.S. population and per capita income and the demand for exports of <br />farm commodities caused by economic growth and agricultural shortfalls in the <br />rest of the world. Production is estimated based upon past trends in land use <br />(with appropriate constraints) and projected increases in the productivity <br />(i.e. crop yields) of farm land. <br /> <br />The model has several underlying assumptions which should be noted here: <br /> <br />o Increasing domestic and export demand; <br /> <br />o Increasing prices for agricultural products as a response <br />to increasing demand; <br /> <br />o Continuing increasing crop yields, but at a gradually decreasing <br />rate; and <br /> <br />o No climatic changes. <br /> <br />State and regional input/output (I/O) model s were then used to project <br />industry sector activities, sector employment, total value added, total <br />househo 1 d income, and state and 1 oca 1 tax revenues, each related to the LP <br />projections for the future years. <br /> <br />13 <br />