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<br />ABSTRACT <br /> <br />A physically based distributed parameter rainfall runoff model was developed for <br />the upper Gunnison River Basin in western Colorado. The model was developed <br />using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), running inside the <br />Modular Modeling System (MMS) graphical framework. Characterization of the <br />watershed and development of model distributed parameters was accomplished, in <br />large part, through the use of Geographic Information Systems technology. The <br />model created was unique in that its areal extent (the upper Gunnison River Basin) <br />was orders of magnitude larger than any previous applications of PRMS. In <br />combination with this large areal extent, a lower spatial resolution was used for <br />model distributed parameters than is generally applied with PRMS. <br /> <br />Statistical and visual analyses indicate a close match between simulated and <br />observed streamflow. While using a lower spatial resolution causes some <br />generalization of the simulated hydrograph, the general shape of the hydrograph <br />and aggregated volumes of water can be effectively simulated using such an <br />approach. It is concluded that PRMS can be applied successfully on large river <br />basins using a lower spatial resolution approach when the output of interest is <br />weekly, monthly, or yearly volumes of water. <br /> <br />The model was used to perform global climate change analysis in the Gunnison <br />River Basin. Based on a "best guess" climate scenario developed by Dennis <br />(1991) for the Gunnison River Basin (under the assumption of doubled <br />atmospheric carbon dioxide), the rainfall runoff model predicts a decrease in <br />streamflows of 5 percent, with significant changes in the distribution of streamflow <br />throughout the year. Sensitivity model runs were also performed on an array of <br />altered historical climate data. These model simulations show that streamflows <br />change significantly as precipitation and temperature change. However, due to the <br />uncertainty of future climate, limited information pertinent to water resource <br />management planning activities is gained by such analysis. <br /> <br />The model was also used as a "real time" operations model to predict inflows to <br />major reservoirs in the upper Gunnison River Basin. Climate data obtained <br />through satellite telemetry was used as input data in these model runs. Inflow <br />forecasts developed with the model were used in the operation of Blue Mesa, <br />Morrow Point, and Crystal Reservoirs in water years 1993 and 1994. The model <br />helped water managers improve the operation of the reservoirs during the 2 test <br />years. It is concluded that PRMS within the MMS graphical framework can be <br />successfully applied to operational modeling. <br /> <br />Ancillary to the development of the rainfall runoff model, several computerized <br />systems were developed to assist in general water resource management activities. <br />These systems include: (I) the Upper Colorado Hydrologic Database. (2) the <br />Upper Colorado Hydrologic Information System, and (3) MMS. <br />