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<br />..'~.f' ..... <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />ce <br /> <br />I:. <br />~\' :..:t ,,;.. ,oft <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />t'\~", G ,,"l <br />L"J :,' .J.J , <br /> <br />APRIL <br /> <br />2.890 * Observed Oct-Dee inflow into Paonia Reservoir <br />2.201 * Observed Oct-Dee precip at Butte SNOTEL site <br />3.021 * Observed Oct-Dee precip at McClure Pass SNOTEL site <br />2.~97 * Observed Oct-Dee precip at Park Reservoir SNOTEL site <br />2.82~ * Observed Apr 1 swe at Butte SNOTEL pillow <br />2.261 * Observed Apr 1 swe at Park Reservoir pillow <br />2.615 * Observed Mar inflow into Paonia Reservoir <br />intercept = -119.08 <br />standard error = 28.07 <br /> <br />MAY <br /> <br />3.695 * Observed May 1 swe at Butte SNOTEL pillow <br />2.~~1 * Observed May 1 swe at Park Reservoir pillow <br />1.202 * Observed Apr inflow into Paonia Reservoir <br />intercept = -30.606 <br />standard error = 20.6~ <br /> <br />JUNE <br /> <br />O,9~2 * Observed Apr-May inflow into Paonia Reservoir <br />1.~57 * Observed Jun 1 swe at Park Reservoir pillow <br />intercept = 15,732 <br />standard error = 15.88 <br /> <br />Paonia Reservoir inflow is a difficult forecast at best. The <br />best that I hope for is that we're somewhere within the universe <br />with the Jan-Mar forecasts. Hopefully, the April forecast is <br />somewhere within the ball park. The May and June forecasts <br />(after we've seen some inflow) have usually been not bad. I have <br />no problem making a drastic change in the forecast on May 1. I <br />don't know why the Paonia forecast is the worst in the Gunnison <br />Basin -- I suspect the historical inflow data. <br />