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Water Management Study: Upper Rio Grande Basin the patterns of human use ofthis area's related resources are likely to have important implications both for the ecosystem and for its ability to respond to the various competing demands for resources. Resource managers often are relying on institutions and laws based on models of uncertainty that are inconsistent with current scientific knowledge. Water law in the three states is based on a model that assumes the economy does not benefit unless the water is removed from the river.ll The activities of resource-management agencies generally reflect this view, often with perverse impacts on the local, regional, and national economies. A recent episode provides a good illustration. The Rio Grande Compact requires that a specific percentage of water be delivered each year to Elephant Butte Reservoir, but also stipulates that, if water "spills" over Elephant Butte Dam at any time during a year, New Mexico and Colorado will have no further obligation for the rest ofthe year to deliver water to Elephant Butte.'2 The statutory rules governing Cochiti Reservoir require the CoE to release water on demand by MRGCD and other parties, but prohibit the CoE from releasing some of the water during the su=er months, out of fear that, because New Mexico does not protect instream flows, irrigators in the Middle Rio Grande will consume the water before it reaches Elephant Butte Reservoir. $" { ,. ::, .:i- :',< ;.'J .; At the end of summer, 1995, there was about 100,000 af of water that had been held above Cochiti dam. When water managers in New Mexico and Colorado realized that last winter's snowpack would be small, they sought to delay the release of the held-back water even further and to release it in a pulse so that water would "spill" at Elephant Butte Dam early in January, 1996. The potential prize was a big one: if water were to have "spilled in January, water users in New Mexico would have had no further obligation to deliver water to Elephant Butte Reservoir in 1996 and users in Colorado similarly would have been exempted from obligations. Various parties concerned about the potential adverse environmental impact ofthe proposed ,;t? !j 11 This statement is especially true in New Mexico, where instream flows are not recognized at all as a beneficial use. It also applies elsewhere, insofar as the spillover economic consequences of water diversions (Boxes 2-4 of Figure 2.1) are not factored into resource-use decisions. 12 Water does not have to physically spill over the dam to trigger this provision. The three states can agree that a spill would have occurred, but for upstream storage of water in facilities developed subsequent to adoption of the Compact or for accelerated releases of water from Elephant Butte reservoir. 102 C-~298J ,.