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<br /> <br />o <br /> <br />SUMMARY <br /> <br />eo <br />00 <br />~ <br /> <br />An alternative assumption which waS explored was that the volume <br />of forage produced in the OBE-ERS analysis would be retained, but that <br />all forage from pasture would be produced on improved pasture and all <br />hay would be grown on land capable of producing the yields projected <br />for alfalfa hay. Under such an assumption by 2020 irrigated land require- <br />ments would be reduced 232,000 acres and water consumptive use reduced <br />423,000 acre-feet from the OBE-ERS projections. <br /> <br />Under the OBE-ERS projections, the Great Basin Region would import <br />large quantities of feed grains by the year 2020. In order to make <br />the Region self-sufficient in feed grains, production would be increased <br />564,000 tons in 1980, 816,000 tons in 2000 and 1,084,000 tons by 2020. <br />These quantities are in barley equivalents, the most common feed grain <br />produced within the Region. Irrigated land required to produce this <br />additional amount would be 367,000 acres in 1980, 404,000 acres in <br />2000 and 458,000 acres in 2020. Additional irrigation water requirements <br />would be 494,000 acre-feet in 1980, 464,000 acre-feet in 2000 and 554,000 <br />acre-feet in 2020. <br /> <br />The estimated direct and indirect effects on gross regional product <br />of the increased production would be $11.8 million in 1980, $15.5 million <br />in 2000 and $20.9 million in 2020. The increased economic activity <br />would add 1,037 jobs to total regional employment in 1980, 902 jobs <br />in 2000 and 733 jobs in 2020; <br /> <br />A consequence of providing water for the level of economic activity <br />represented by the OBE-ERS projections would be a significant decline <br />in the level of the major terminal lakes of the Region. An I-O analysis <br />was made of the value of economic activity that would be foregone if <br />water were withheld from the processing sectors in quantities sufficient <br />to maintain the lakes at their 1965 levels. The OBEcERS projections <br />provide the benchmark from which the opportunity cost of water in terms <br />of gross regional product and employment is measured. <br /> <br />The analyses indicate that water could be withdrawn from agriculture <br />to maintain terminal lakes at a small fraction of the opportunity cost <br />of like quantities of water in municipal and industrial uses. The cost <br />of allowing water to become a constraint on population, employment and <br />related economic growth is great. Unless planners adopt a course of <br />action to discourage expansion of industrial employment, water could <br />be purchased from lower value uses for future growth. <br /> <br />iv <br />