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OOllb5 storm in 1889 caused 2,200 deaths in the last century's most famous flood at Johnstown, Pennsylvania. Spreading urban development in the early 20th century set the stage for a series of wide- spread flood disasters in 1927, 1936, and 1938. The Great Hurricane of 1938 killed 558 persons and caused 500 mil- lion dollars in property losses, within New England. Subsequent major floods have occurred in the Northeast in 1954 (Carol, Edna) and 1955 (Diane); in the mid-Atlantic states in 1972 (Agnes) and 1975 (Eloise); along the Gulf coast of Mississippi and Louisiana in 1969 (Camille) and 1979 (Frederick). Lo- calized floods of spectacular magnitude have occurred in Rapid City, South Dakota (1972), Big Thompson Canyon, Colorado (1976), Johnstown, Pennsyl- vania (1977), the Massachusetts coast (1978), and the Pearl River in Mississippi (1979). While fatalities have been reduced or prevented entirely in more recent floods due to improved warning and evacuation procedures, levels of property damage and community disruption have been ris- ing sharply. Jackson, Mississippi, for in- stance, in 1961 experienced a major flood which displaced 3,000 people and inflicted about 33 million dollars in property damage. In 1979, despite com- pletion of a Corps of Engineers flood control project at Jackson, the city ex- perienced displacement of 17,000 peo- ple and an estimated 500 million dollars in property damage from a similar, some- what larger flood. Most of the structures affected in 1979 were built in flood- plains subsequent to the 1961 flood. Jackson is typical of urbanizing flood. plains throughout the United States, where, increasingly, property is being de- veloped despite the flood risk. Often such development occurs in the wake of a federal flood control project which creates the illusion that such locations are forever safe from flooding. Overall, the U.S. Water Resources Council has estimated average annual costs of floods to be on the order of $3.8 billion which was about what oc- curred in 1979. Estimates of national flood losses are, of course, inadequate as measures of the true cost of flooding upon the nation. They do not include any value for lives lost or bodily injury to victims. Nor do they account for such tangible but nonquantifiable losses as pain and suffering, mental anguish, loss of cherished possessions, pets, and so forth. Floods also generate the need for mas- sive federal outlays to assist victims and communities to recover (Fig. 8). Federal disaster assistance is normally tied to declaration of a "major disllster" by the President. In 1978, floods in 17 states accounted for 20 presidential disaster declarations. Between January 1 and October 1, 1979,30 flood disasters were declared by the President, involving 18 states, 369 counties, and 2 territories. The dollar cost of federal response to these disasters has been high. Between 1972.and 1979, 2.2 billion dollars were spent by the Federal Emergency Manage- ment Agency and its predecessors in the disaster field, the Office of Emergency Preparedness and the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, in the form of grants and loans to communities and individuals afflicted by floods. In 1978 and 1979 alone, outlays from the pres- idential disaster fund amounted to 243 million dollars and 445 million dollars, respectively. The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) extends low- interest loans to disaster victims. The dollar total of such loans over the period 1972-1979 was 6.7 billion dollars. (These loans are expected to be repaid; the federal subsidy is the difference be- tween the market rate of interest and the rate charged by the SBA, plus any loans in which default occurs.) The National Flood Insurance Pro- gram (NFIP) is an additional, increas- ingly important source of federal assist- ance to flood victims. NFIP provides flood insurance at federally subsidized rates to owners of existing flood-prone structures in participating communities. In order to participate, a community must adopt floodplain management ordi- nances consistent with regulations, studies and maps provided by the Fed- eral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). By the end of 1979, more than 16,000 communities were participating in NFIP, and over 1.7 million policies were in effect covering 70 billion dollars in flood-prone property. Payments be- tween the creation of the NFIP in 1968 and February 1980 exceeded 890 million dollars, of which 482 million dollars re- lated to floods in 1979 alone (Fig. 9). 11