WSP09055

• File Number: 8281.100
• Description: Colorado River Studies and Investigations -- Availability of Water-Hydrologic Determination
• Basin: Colorado Mainstem
• Water Division: 5
• Date: 1/1/1988
• Title: Hydrologic Determination - 1988 - Water Availability from Navajo Reservoir and the Upper Colorado River Basin for Use in New Mexico
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

, '-~)'

.
,

,
, ,

critical period associated with each probability. These data were used to
prepare the curves of Figure 1 which indicate the yield available from the
system for a desired probability and a given shortage. Since the data are
limited it should be understood that these curves are only approximate and
give only an indication as to the probabilities involved.

(. .)

~
-4
~
~,

Shortage
(Percent)
o

2

4

6

8

TABLE 1

',. ',n_", Relationships "Between __
Yield - probability - Shortage

Firm Yield Percent Probability of Greater Yield
(MAF) 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3
5.55 93.94 87.50 80.B5 73.81 65.85 55.26
(25)!f (49) (50 ) (35) (40) (41) (44)
5.66 98.08 93.94 87.50 80.85 73 .91 65.85
(25) (30 ) (49 ) (50) (35 ) (36) (41 )
5.78 98.25 98.11 96.23 90.63 84.38 76.,09
(25) (25) (29 ) (29) (50) (50) (36 )
5.90 98.11 96.49 90.91 84.85
(25) (29) (25) 1.49 ) (49 )

6.03
(25 )

98.11
(29 )

96.49
(25 )

93.94
(49 )
length

11 Figures in parentheses indicate the associated critical period
in years.

5. Calls on the River - Site Specific Shortage Analysis

A "call on the river" occurs when the Upper Division is unable to make the
required delivery to the Lower Division from Upper Basin storage and must
curtail its own uses to meet the delivery from river flows. An analysis of
calls was made using the CRSS model. A nominal demand level of 6.1 MAF was
used with the 81 hydrologic sequences to analyze the effects and frequency
of calls. The hydrologic record was wrapped around so that each sequence
was extended to the year 2040 when Upper Basin demands are expected to

8