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<br />-16- <br /> <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />OIL SHALE INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT PATTERN <br /> <br />It is believed that the development of an oil shale <br /> <br />industry will proceed in four distinct phases. This <br />pattern probably will be followed regardless of when the <br />industry starts. These phases are as follows: <br /> <br />Phase I <br />Phase II <br />Phase III <br />Phase IV <br /> <br />Experimental <br />Prototype <br />Primary Expansion <br />Secondary Expansion <br /> <br />Phase I - ExPerimental <br />The experimental phase started about 15 years ago and <br /> <br />is now in its final stages. During this period satisfactory <br /> <br />methods for each step in the production of shale fuels have <br /> <br /> <br />been developed. Some additional experimental work is being <br /> <br />done now, but the technology essentially is marking time. <br /> <br />Little additional experimentation is necessary before <br /> <br />building a prototype commercial plant. <br />Phase I might be termed the pre-prototype phase, which <br /> <br />will continue until the need for beginning commercial shale <br /> <br /> <br />oil production becomes evident to oil company management. <br /> <br />Phase II - Prototype <br />The prototype phase involves building the first <br />commercial scale plant (or plants). This might also be <br />termed the pioneer phase. <br /> <br />Since the technology to be used is new, many signi- <br /> <br /> <br />ficant improvements are to be expected as a result of this <br /> <br />first experience at full-scale production. This is also <br />the period of maximum technological risk. The objective <br />