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<br />ESTIMATE OF PETROLE~1 SUPPLY AND DEMAND THROUGH 1975 <br /> <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />Future petroleum demand and availability is a subject <br />of continuing study by oil company economists, government <br />agencies, and others (5)(11)(13)(14)(25)(26)(48). Current- <br />ly, several estimates are published each year by experts <br />in this field. From a study of the most recent estimates, <br />and consultation with the authors, we have derived a con- <br />census prediction of petroleum demand and domestic petro- <br />leum production through the year 1975. Our demand and <br />production estimate is presented in Figure 1. <br />It is the conclusion of the experts that petroleum <br />demand in the United States will continue to increase for <br />the next 15 to 20 years, The rate of increase will be <br />slightly less than that of the past 10 years, but will <br />reach a level of 16,000,000 barrels per day in 1975. <br />Domestic petroleum demand in 1958 was 9,313,000 barrels <br />per day (38). <br />Petroleum production in the United States has shown a <br />steady increase, but has not kept pace with demand, It is <br />predicted that production will continue to increase until <br />the period 1965 to 1970, then begin a gradual decline, The <br />reason for this decline will not necessarily be that the <br />industry cannot find more oil, but that the cost of alter- <br />nate source~, such as shale oil, will be less than the <br />cost of finding new and replacement petroleum. <br />The gap between demand and production since 1948 has <br />been filled by_imports ~nd this practice probably can be <br />-6- <br />