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<br />RICHARD P. GODWIN <br /> <br />the gap between energy costs of nuclear and fossil plants. <br /> <br />To give you some idea of the competitive coal price as a function of plant size, consider plants <br />ranging in size from 150 MW to 1000 MW. In this case the competitive price of coal varies from about <br />$5/MBTU to about 25 cents/MBTU. The broad band represents the range of financing conditions be- <br />tween public and private utilities, differences in plant siting and cooling water conditions. <br /> <br />Although nuclear power has become competitive in most regions of the U.S., it has not been <br />able to penetrate the market in the Colorado River Basin as a result of the relatively low fossil fuel and <br />hydroelectric costs in this area. However, while nuclear power generation may not be competitive in <br />the Colorado Basin today, there is a large industry developing in support of the rapid growth of nu- <br />clear plants in other regions of the U.S., and it is here where the Basin will first feel the impact of the <br />atom. <br /> <br />The major impact of nuclear power on the Basin initially will be associated with the mining <br />and milling of uranium ore. Greater than 95 percent of all known economically recoverable uranium <br />reserves in the U.S. are located in New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado and Utah with a total of 141,000 <br />tons so far identified. The rapid increase in on-stream nuclear plants will create a surge in uranium de- <br />mand. <br /> <br />~ <br />~ <br />I <br /> <br />This future growth rate for uranium will be very remarkable indeed. At present, the projected <br />annual requirements for U.~OR due to domestic demand only, excluding USAEC requirements, have <br />doubled over 1965. They will double again by 1972. By 1980, sales of yellowcake will exceed 600 mil- <br />lion dollars per year, nearly 10 times the present sales. The capacity of existing uranium mills will be <br />reached by approximately 1972-73, and a substantial expansion will be required which is currently <br />just beginning to get underway. <br /> <br />The total U.S. reasonably assured reserves at prices less than $IO/Ib U308 are only 190,000 <br />tons, and the ever increasing demand has precipitllted a considerable increase in exploration. <br /> <br />Beyond 1980, uranium requirements will continue to increase until some time after the year <br />2,000. New uranium requirements will be reduced about 10 percent starting about 1974-75, when it is <br />expected fissile plutonium than they burn. Water cooled thermal reactors will continue to be installed, <br />however, and the requirement for uranium will persist for a considerable period. <br /> <br />In addition to the uranium demand in the Colorado River Basin, another important future role <br />for nuclear power will be in supplementing the limited water supply in the area by utilizing water de- <br />salination techniques. Desalination of water is currently in its infancy, and a considerable number of <br />alternative schemes have been proposed for producing potable water. The main contender at present <br />as measured by the amount of installed desalting capacity is flash distillation. This process is partic- <br />ularly amenable to the application of a large nuclear energy heat source in dual purpose plants which <br />produce both fresh water and power. . <br /> <br />A typical example of such a plant is the proposed Bolsa Island project currently being consid- <br />ered by the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the SCE, OSW, AEC and others. This <br />dual purpose plant as originally conceived would produce 150 mgd of distilled water plus 1800 MW of <br />electric power. The current estimated water cost for this installation is approximately 35-37 cents/ <br />1000 gallons. The proposed plant site is a man-made island off the Southern California coast. Effluent <br />from this plant could be mixed with Colorado River water if desired, thus postponing the requirement <br />for installing water softening equipment. <br /> <br />It is interesting to speculate on the possibilities (more correctly probabilities) of the Basin <br />States building or participating in the construction of large water desalting plants on the coast of the <br />state of California or on the Gulf of California in order to trade produce water for an increased allot- <br />ment of Colorado River water. While the rains deliver water to us at no cost in a somewhat random <br />fashion, the cost of transporting the water to the user is quite substantial. The oil companies have been <br />trading stocks of petroleum products for years. The time will soon arrive when water must be handled <br />on a similar basis - both domestically and between countries. <br /> <br />A recent study of a very large dual plant has just been published by a joint group composed of <br />representatives from the International Atomic Agency, Mexico and the United States, The report indi- <br /> <br />-31- <br /> <br />