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;773 8~ RUEDI DAM AND RESERVOIR, COLO. ;, production will be limited ouly by the ability of the iuclustry to ex- pand. The "-year period followiug phase III should see an increase ~f shale oil production to about 1',4 rnz]llOn barl'e]s per day. TJlIS IS thought to be the mllximum rate at which t.he industr~r can grow with normal economic incentives. The effect of some natIOnal emergency which might Rccelera.te growth is not considered. The phase IV expa.llsion will require an invest.ment in the range of . I $5 billion, not incluclingcornmurUty facilities, snppol't,ing industry and other improvements. An additional populatiou of about 300,000 "ill be needed. The Chase Manhattan R\llk (43) has estimated that petroleum . I industry expeuditures for exploration and production in the United States for the period 1D61-G5 will be $2i.5 billion. The investment of $5 billion during a 5-year period for shale oil production facilities does not-seem unreasonable. The Parachnte,-Roan Creek area and the main stem of the Colorado River between Rifle and De Beque "ill continue to be the center of activities and most of the production during pha_se IV will be from shale outcrops along t.he river and tributary streamsj however, pro- uuct.iol1 of nil f1'(lm the deep sha-les in the Piceance Creek area. to the north and from the shales in northeastern Uta,h should begin. Total production from these new ,ueas may be 250,000 barrels per day. The larl!est market for shale oil will continue to be the Pacific ('"oast. Petroleunl demand in the five States comprising the west coast. area is growing more rapidly t.Jmn the count.ry ns a whole, and nome-stoic produdion already IS in decline. By 19i5 demand may reach 3 mil- lion barrels per day (21). Tn 1958, California production, the only west coast State with significant oil reserves, was less than 1 million barrels per day (38). The Pacific Coast, oil deficit, uo" 3i5,OOO barrels per day (38) is supplied by oversea imports, and oil pipelined from Canada and the Rocky 1\fOllllt:1in area. By 1975, when 2 million barrels per day of outsi,h, supply "ill be required, it seems likely t.lmt a shale oil market exceeclinp: !'i00,000 barrels per day will exist. The othe,r major market for shale oil from phase IV probably will be in the Middle 1Vest. Petroleum and petroleum products now come to this area, largely by pipeline, from Texas, Oklahoma, the Rocky J.loulltllin area, and Canada. Product.ion in the area is small com- pared with demand. The output of a 1,200-mile, 500,000-barrel-pel'- day shale oil pipeline to the Chicago area should be easily absorbed 10 or 15 years from no\..... Local demand for shale oil products will have iucreased several-fold on account of the increase in population and the level of industrial activity. This demand will be in the rauge of 50,0011 barrels per day. ",Ve ant.icipate significant changes in the technology as [t. conse. quenee of phases II an,l III. The methods used for phase 1\- 1'1'0- duct.iOll will require. less invest.ment per unit of production~ will make bette-l' use of the l'ltW material, giving higher yields of superior prod. llets and, most. likely, will ut.ilize the lower grade shales not now con- sidered economical. Ho"ever, the probability of using in situ com- bustion. atomic explOSIons or some other revohltionm''y method during t.his period seems remote.