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<br />RUED! DAM AXD RESERVOIR, COLO. . 75 <br /> <br />37 6;? is the conclusion of the experts that petroleum dmllana in the <br />United St...'1tes will continue to increase for t.lH~ next 15 to ~o years. <br />The rate of increase will be slightly less than that of the past.lO yea~, <br />but will reach II level of 16 million barrels per day in 1975. Domestic <br />petroleum demand in 1~58 wus 9,313,000 barrels per day (38). <br />Pet.roleum product-ion in the United St.n.te.::i has showll a. st.eady in- <br />creuse, but has not kept pace with demaud. It is predicted that pro- <br />ductioll will continue to increase unt.il t.lIe per"iod ]965 to 1970, then <br />begin a gradual de-cline. The reason for this docline will not noces- <br />sarily be that the industry camlOt find more oil, but th"t the cost of <br />a.lternate source-8, such as shale. oil, will be less than the cost of- finding <br />new a.nd repln..cement pet-role lUll. <br />The gap Letwoon demo,nel and production sin~e 1948 has been filled <br />by imports, and this practice probably can be followed through 1965 <br />without our becoming overly depende.nt on o\'ersea oil. llowever, <br />whell product.ion levels off, then l>egins to decline, the deficit between <br />production a.nd demn.nd will increase at more than twice the present <br />rate, reachingnhout 7 million banels per doty by 1075. <br />It seems reasonable that shale oil production to supply a palt of <br />this large deficit "ill begin between 1965 and 1910. A pioneer pro- <br />duction unit to est.ablish the technology on a commercial basis prob- <br />ably will be bnilt prior to this time. Assuming ",logical pattei'll of <br />development for the shale industry, UlHl.ti'P,ctoo by war 01' other emer- <br />gencies, slUlle oil production should reu-ch about.. '1,250,QOO barrels per <br />day by 1975. <br /> <br />INFOfillf.\TION ON Oil. SIL\LE <br /> <br />Oil shale re8e,..ve:~ <br />Shale oil has long boon looked npon in the United St<1les "l1d else- <br />where as the log-ical supplement to petroleulIl. Oil sbale reserves a.re <br />large and "idely distnbuted. The shale oil potential of t.he United <br />States exceeds the combined petroleum reserves of the Middle East <br />and Y 6nezuela. and is mllny t.imes greater t.han the most optimistic pre- <br />diction of ultim",te petroleum discoveries in the United States. \Vith- <br />out question, shale oil, when needed, can contribute significantly to <br />our euergy sup~ly. <br />Svenska Skdferolje A.B., the Swedish shale oil company, hl\S <br />rol1ghly est,imated the world's oil reserves in shale (18). Table 1 gives <br />their estimates by country in which oil shale is known to occur. <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />