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<br />dv7.ltt <br /> <br />The investment in mines, ret.ol'ting plants, refineries and pipelines <br />through 107,. will exceed $0 billion. This magnitude of investmeut <br />is well "ithin the capabilities of the petroleum industry. An addi- <br />tiona.l inyestment of undetermined m:lgn.itude will be made in hons- <br />ing. service facilities aIlel other impl'OVeH1enb. These expenditures <br />may exceed that for production facilities. <br /> <br />(J'/.I'/'ent "tat"", of u.s. oiZshale <br />DUl'~ng th.e past 1!J years, Goyernment n:11,d.indlL'3try hu"e speI~t p~r- <br />haps $50 mlllwn on research! land acqUIsItIOn, find other actn'Jtles <br />pl'o.panltDl'Y to sta.l'ting a. slutle illdustl'Y. Etfi~i(',nt., ocO\v.::n:nic pl'OC- <br />esses nO\\-" are n,yailable for each phase ill the production and relining <br />of shale on. Shale product:3 call be milllufadureu which are. equi- <br />valent in every WflY to those from petroleum. <br />Presently, sha.le oil awaits a market. Both U.S. and foreign pe- <br />t.role.um-pl'uclucing' areas ha.n~ ex<.:ess capacity. This oil can be ob- <br />ta.ine.d at little or no additional illvestmcnt. Shale oil, technologically <br />and el:ollomjcally, is ready fur development when domest.ic fields are <br />bl'jng produced at maximum practical rates nud there is protect.ion <br />fnllll competition by imported oil. <br /> <br />RUEDI DAM AND RESERVOIR, COLO. <br /> <br />73 <br /> <br />WA1'El{ nEQUII:EJ[EKT.S FOr. SlIALE1 1 fJGO-j;:; <br /> <br />The first ~tpp in this study was to attempt, to establish the date <br />when t'olllmel'cial shale. (Iii prucluction will .start. This was dOlle by <br />a. study of recent: petroleulll supply und demand fOl'eC;lsts by experts <br />in this tield. <br />Next, a. pat.tern of indust.ry growth wus worked out taking into ac- <br />cOllnt the present status of the technology, the forecasted gap between <br />domestic pl'oduct,ion and demand for all, the compa.l'al.ive economics <br />of shale oil and petroleum, the remoteness and indust.ria.! underdevel- <br />opment of the oil sha,le fi,l'eas~ and other factors. Engineering esti~ <br />mates of water requirements both for l111Ulicipal and industrinl use <br />Wel'B made for each inw~stment of shat~ oil Pl'Q(..luct\nn. <br />The result is a first appl'oxima..tion of a time sehcdule for water <br />supply planning for oil shale. This study will require periodic re- <br />vim'\"". Once commercial shn..1e oil production begins and as new tech- <br />nology emerges it is likely that. 1'e\'i5ion5 will be necessary. <br /> <br />}:5TIMATE OF PETROLElT!t'[ svrPLY AND DEJIAND THROUGH 1975 <br /> <br />, Fature petroleum demand .U\d ava,ilability is a subject of contin- <br />uing study by oil company economists, Government agencies, and <br />others (5), (11), (13), (14), (25) (20), (48).' Currently, sever..l <br />estimates ,we published each year by expe'is in t,his field. From a <br />study of the lnos~ recent estimate~, ~lnd cOllsuln.t.ion wit.h the authors, <br />we have deriyed a;- eOllsensus predictIOn of pet.roleum demand and do- <br />mest.ic petroleum production through the JefLr 1D75. Our demand <br />and production estimate is pre.sented in figul'e 1. <br /> <br />t J ~"llnll"'fH In p/ll'enthe~c~ f('eer to blblogrflpby "t end (It app. D, PP. 81-89. <br />52351-60-6 <br /> <br />