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<br /> 20 <br />-:: <br />~ <br />~ <br />"- 18 <br />, <br />~ <br />" <br />q <br />c 16 <br />0 <br />,. <br />;0 14 <br />0 <br />-' <br />"- <br />-' <br />q <br />=> 12 <br /><: <br /><: <br />q <br /> 10 <br /> <br /> <br />2.1.61 <br /> <br />99,99 <br />24 <br /> <br />99 98 <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />999998 <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />22 <br /> <br />I~ <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />. --+- <br /> <br />PLATE 9 <br /> <br />'" <br /> <br /> + mr .c <br /> " <br /> :c. , ~ ~ <br /> ~ + <br /> ,: I ~ <br /> ~ <br /> . ,~:~ ~ I. , -, <br />I~- I , i+ <br />i r <br />:J: , <br /> -"1 <br />=!= + <br /> <br />8 <br /> <br />6 <br />"OJ <br /> <br />98 99 <br /> <br />99.91 <br /> <br />0.050,10.2 0.5 <br /> <br />5 10 20 30 ~O 50 60 70 90 95 <br />PERCENT CHANCE FLOWS WILL BE EXCEEDED <br /> <br />99.899.9 <br /> <br />sinj and (-l) a fuB supply of 1.1 million :H:rc-feet <br />per <lnnllm for the proposed Central Arizona <br />Project until nhout the turn of the ccntur~', gr;ld- <br />ually reducing there.,fter. <br />"Present m,linstrearn lIses ,Ind commitments in <br />the Colorado Ri\'er Basil\ with California lIse~ <br />limited to 4.+ million acre-feet per annum,. arc: <br /> <br />Alil/io1l IIcre-fed <br />peT t1Jl711111l <br />4.7 <br /> <br />Upper Basin <br />Lower Basin _m_ <br />1\1cxico ____d___n_____n__ <br />Net losses ;lftcr s3lv:.1ge <br />(mean of estimJtes) <br /> <br />5.7 <br />L'i <br /> <br />.l'i <br /> <br />TOTAL ..... "moo" I,., <br /> <br />. California.s prc~ellt use~ are approximareh- '.1 <br />million acre-feet, . <br /> <br />"Probability' studies indicate a 9,~ percent <br />chance th.at the future long-range average Jnnual <br />runoff will exceed 1 J.J million acre-feet and ;l <br />50 pcr~e,nt chance that it will equal or' exceed <br />]4.9 JJullIon nere-freL \Vith an even chance that <br />there will be 14.9 million acre-feet avaibble for <br />present uses ;1I1d cOJ11lllitmems ;lnloullting to 12.7 <br /> <br />28 <br /> <br />million acreRfeer, and with n \\-<ltfr supply :HJg- <br />mentation program pending, it is in the national <br />jnterest to df:\'c1op a portion of the remaining un- <br />used water resources bv enactmcnt and implemen- <br />tation of H.R. 4671, 89rh Congress (this and ,6 <br />other House hills ;lfC identical counterp;uts of S. <br />1019 in the Senore)." <br /> <br />Plate 9 shows the probability of annual \"irgin <br />flows in the Colorado River at Lee Fern', cal- <br />culated from the annual \"irgin flows ~f the <br />1896-1965 period. The curve shows the percent <br />chance that a given quantity will be equaled or <br />exceeded by the flow in a single year or by the <br />mean of a lO-year or a 70-year period. The <br />graph demonstrates that the longer the period <br />of years considered, the less the range of the <br />probable mean. Plate 9 indicates a 50 percent <br />chance that the mean for a 70-year period will <br />equal or e\Ceed ] 4.9 million acre-feet a year. <br />The percent chance of the mean being within <br />certain limits can also be determined. This is <br />sho".n for selected limits in the following table. <br />