WSP08574

• File Number: 8141.100
• Description: Fryingpan-Arkansas Project - Project Description
• State: CO
• Basin: Arkansas
• Date: 1/1/1969
• Author: US DoI BoR
• Title: Flood Control Fryingpan-Arkansas Project Eastern Slope Features
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Project Overview

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'.period. ,However, large increases of crop yields are expected.as a
result of technological advances and improved farm management, and in
consideration of the current and pending developments, most of the in-
crease in production should take place in the early part of the period.
According to the publications of the U.S.' Department of Agriculture,
A 50-Year Look Ahead at U.S. AgPiouZtuPe~'June 1959; and Agricultural
Econoolic Report No.' 33, Long-Tezm Production ~ospects for Western
Agl'iouZtuPe, May 1963, there will be substantial increases in crop
yields in the United States over the next 50 years. It is reasonable
to assume that there will be further technological advances after this
time so that over a 100-year period there will be a large increase in
average yield per acre. Based on a 1957-59 average index of 100 for
crops produced in the Arkansas River Basin, the index of production in
the United States is expected to be 113 in 1975 and 160 in 2010. Ex-
trapolation of the 1975 to 2010 rate to the year 2060 yields an index
of 265 or an increase over 1957 of 165 percent. The increase between
1960 and 2060 would be 163 percent. For Colorado the index figures for
the years 1975, 2010, and 2060 are 119, 169, and 280, respectively.
The increase in average yield per acre will be 180 percent. 'It is esti-
mated that crop production in the Arkansas River flood plain in 2060
will be about 2.32 times that of 1960 or an increase of 132 percent.
This percentage is based on an average yield per acre ,index of 100 in
1960; 126 in 1975; and 176 in 2010. It is expected that the increase
in per acre yields between 2010 and 2060 will be at a decreasing rate
so that the 2060 index will be only 232. The increase between 1960 and
2060 would be 132 percent. This overall increase of 132 percent ad-
justed to an average annual equivalent recognizing a faster growth rate
in the initial years of project operations results in a growth factor
of 85 percent.

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89. During a like period, population within the flood plain of
the Arkansas River is also expected to increase, but at a lesser growth
rate than agricultural production. It is estimated that the 2060 popu-
lation of the basin above the Purgatoire River will be about 4.25 times
the 1960 population which would be a 325 percent increase. Population
projections shown on plate 8 indicate that most of the growth would
occur during the latter part of the period. Adjusting the nonuniform
growth rate to reflect the deferred growth, Yields an average annual
equivalent rate of 0.78. Further adjustment of the basin factor to.
reflect growth only in the flood plain results in a growth factor of
40 percent. Growth in the area, other than increased agricultural
production, will likely be directly or indirectly related to increases
in population. Consequently, growth that would take place in the flood
plain, other than crops and some economically stable developments, would
occur at the same rate as population expansion. '

90. Benefits to future developments are tabulated in table 12, and
are estimated to be $181,400. This is about 32 percent of benefits to
existing developments that would be benefited. As indicated in the
table, there would be no significant benefit from this source in the

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