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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 002096 I. INTRODUCTION Figure 1 illustrates the complex of interacting models used during the study to estimate the quantitative impact of the various water management strategies analyzed. Central to this complex is the linear programming (LP) model of the region's crop enterprises. As described in Appendix 1 in the summary report, this model attempts to simulate the decisions which profit maximizing farmers would make in planning agri- cultural production. The LP model selects a mix and level of crops which will maximize a farmer's "profit" defined for the study as the total return to land and management (RLM) from the farm enterprise. The model selects this profit maximizing cropping pattern based on various constraints (resource, risk, agronomic, and other) factored into the model, the projected profit per acre for each crop under various pro- duction conditions (e.g., water, soil), and the level of constrained re- sources required by each crop situation. Under Study Element A-l, each of the six states involved in the study developed an agricultural model for the Ogallala portions of the state which maximized RLM in the manner briefly summarized in the pre- ceding paragraph. In order to operate these models, it was necessary to develop appropriate constraints and project over a 40-year period those elements by which returns could be calculated (i.e., crop yields, crop prices, input quantities, input prices). Perhaps equally important was the necessity to insure a reasonable degree of consistency between states in the technology, price, policy, and other appropriate assumptions and projections employed in each of the state models. Study Element B-7, thus, was designed and undertaken with two roles in mind: First, to provide support to the state researchers in projecting the data 1 Arthur 0 little foe