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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />002H}~' <br /> <br />II I. CROP PRICES <br /> <br />A. INTROOUCTION <br />The development of long-term benchmark farm prices for key agri- <br />cultural products produced in the High Plains was encompassed in the <br />Interim Report as Task B-7.1. The general approach for estimating <br /> <br />baseline farm prices in the region consisted of four steps: <br />· estimating long-term U.S. commodity prices for 1985, 1990, <br />2000, and 2020, <br />. tracking historical deviations from nationwide commodity <br />prices, in each of the six study states, <br />· determining to the degree possible what High Plains <br />regional - U.S. deviations will likely occur over the <br />next 40 years. and <br />. based on the preceding steps, estimating long-term farm <br />commodity prices for the selected time periods. <br />Once this process had been completed for a baseline situation (which <br />required close interaction with the NIRAP model on land availability, pro- <br />ductivity, etc. [see following section]), the same state indices were <br />applied to any change in U.S. commodity prices resulting from shifts in <br />regional agricultural production associated with the various management <br />strategies. Thus, a series of state commodity prices were devleoped, <br />each reflecting a different regional production situation. <br />In its overall study design and coordination effort, the General <br />Contractor required that each state as a minimum include corn, wheat, <br />sorghum, soybeans, cotton (in Texas and New Mexico only), and hay or <br />alfalfa in their LP models since these crops represented the vast <br /> <br />; <br /> <br />9 <br /> <br />Arthur D Little, foe <br />