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<br />'" ,".......-.... '.-........-.,.. <br />;:;W;,>, <br />"7 <br /> <br />F. <br />,;."'"'.~"._. . ';:-~,!!:~-;.,....,;".~..~.i'. ..",...~,;" ~!,v.~.-,t:.d:, .;.o;"~ <br />~ <br />.-~ <br /> <br />. . <br /> <br />t <br /> <br />· 9 <br /> <br />and Kalmbach study. It must be noted bowever, ~bat tbe assump~ions of 29.0 KAF <br /> <br />available storage and a 7.5 KAF delivery to the Lower Basin used in the Tipton <br /> <br />and Kalmbach study are not consistent with present Bureau operating policy. <br /> <br />1. Computerized Formula Results = Extension of Period <br /> <br />Runs were made using the computerized formula and eacb of tbe bydrology data <br /> <br />sets with their respective full periods of record. <br /> <br />Virgin Flows - It was determined that the addition of 16 years of data made no <br /> <br />difference in the analysis discussed above. Using this data set, the critical <br /> <br />period remains tbe same. Thus tbe results obtained from tbe analysis remain the <br /> <br />same. <br /> <br />CRSS Natural Flows - By fixing two of the variables to comply with present <br /> <br />Bureau policy, i.e., annual delivery to the Lower Basin of 8.25 KAF and <br /> <br />allowable storage at 26.2 KAF, it was determined that tbe allowable depletion in <br /> <br />the Upper Basin would be 5.8 MAY. This is a conservative figure and is based <br /> <br />upon the assumptions of no (zero) shortage. and no additional water from bank <br /> <br />storage release. O.ing the natural flows, the critical period shifted to the 25 <br /> <br />yearl .tarting in 1953 and had an average flow of 12.96 MAY/year at Lees Ferry. <br /> <br />The program also determined the probabilities of meeting or exceeding a 5.8 MAY <br /> <br />depletion. The probability is 97.96 percent based on the period of record. <br /> <br />2. Verification ~ = ~ <br /> <br />Several CRSS model runs were made to verify the formula approach as discussed <br /> <br />above. The approach to the problem using the CRSS model is slightly different <br /> <br />J <br />, <br />f; <br />i <br />';' <br />~ <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />\.' <br /> <br />;; <br />, <br /> <br />f <br /> <br />,p <br /> <br />, <br />.' <br /> <br />) <br /> <br />:~.., I <br />.. <br /> <br />;~, <br /> <br />~. <br />l <br />., <br />f& <br />~~ <br />rf..~ <br />~ <br />~~ \ <br />r" <br />t~ <br />[~ <br />r;;~ <br />t." <br />o <br />~_i <br />11 <br />r~ <br />M <br />fl1' <br />.~ <br />m! <br />ii <br />r~ <br />f"" <br />':1\ <br />}:t;'" <br />r-"I;; <br />t);~:. <br />tiC <br />f'..... <br />f <br />t <br />" <br />l' <br />r <br />f <br />~ <br />ti <br />